📊 NIFTY Market Outlook & Strategy – 23 June 2025
Instrument: NIFTY 50
Expiry: 26 June 2025 (Monthly)
Date: Monday, 23 June 2025
🧠 Market Profile Analysis (17 – 20 June 2025)
🔸 June 17 – Balanced Day
• POC: 24862 | VAH: 24895 | VAL: 24828
• Buyers supported at VAL, sellers active near VAH.
🔸 June 18 – Double Distribution
• POC: 24828 | VAH: 24869 | VAL: 24761
• Buyers absorbed supply from below, price rebounded strongly.
🔸 June 19 – Trend Day (Bullish)
• POC: 25087 | VAH: 25111 | VAL: 24963
• Clean breakout above balance with initiative buying.
🔸 June 20 –Balanced to Weak Close
• Day High: 25111.15 | Low: 24828.7
• VAH: 25087.18 | VAL: 24828.7 | POC: 24963.2
• Observation: Balanced profile, rejection at 25111, acceptance around POC 24963. Wide value area – indicates indecision before a potential move.
📌 Key Levels to Watch on 23 June
- Resistance Zone: 25087 → 25111
- POC Pivot: 24963.2
- Support Zone: 24828.7
- Major Support: 24774.9 (Swing low)
📊 Participant Data – 20 June 2025
🔹 FII: Strong Bearish in Index Futures (-9,268 contracts)
🔹 PRO: Strong Bullish in Index Options – expecting movement
🔹 Clients: Strong Bearish in both Calls and Puts – may be trapped
🔹 DII: Mild Bullish
Conclusion: Mixed sentiment. FIIs cautious, PROs expecting volatility. Watch for breakout or breakdown around key zones.
📈 Option Chain Data – 26 June Expiry
- Spot Price: 25112.40
- Futures Price: 25096.50
- Max Pain: 25000
- PCR: 1.13 (Neutral to slightly Bullish)
- Highest OI Resistance: 25200 CE (5.4L)
- Highest OI Support: 25000 PE (4.8L)
Implied Volatility and Open Interest suggest tight expiry range unless there's a breakout.
📅 Intraday Trading Plan for 23 June 2025
🟢 Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout (Above 25087)
- Entry: On breakout above 25087 or retest of 25040-25087
- Target: 25111 → 25180
- Stoploss: Below 24963
🟡 Scenario 2 – Range Bound/Neutral
- Opening inside value area (24828 – 25087)
- Plan: Avoid trades unless volume-based breakout or breakdown occurs
- Key Pivot: 24963.2 – monitor closely
🔴 Scenario 3 – Bearish Breakdown (Below 24828)
- Entry: On breakdown of 24828 with volume
- Target: 24774.9 → 24720
- Stoploss: Above 24900
✅ Summary & View
- Balanced profile on June 20 with wider value – market at decision point
- Watch 24963.2 POC – base level for trend direction
- Break above 25087 = long trigger | Break below 24828 = short trigger
- Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish above 24963, Bearish below 24828
Keep position sizes controlled – expiry week volatility is high.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading involves risk. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any positions.
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