📊 Nifty 50 Premarket Analysis – 17 July 2025 (Expiry Day)
Market: NIFTY 50
Spot: 25,212.05
Futures: 25,216.68
Expiry: 17 July (Weekly)
Date: Thursday, 17 July 2025
🟩 1. Market Profile Chart (30 Min) – Balanced Profile
What Happened: On 16 July, Nifty formed a balanced profile between 25145 to 25240 with a clear Point of Control (POC) at 25207. Price rotated multiple times within this range, showing strong activity from both buyers and sellers.
Why It Happened: This often happens ahead of expiry when institutions are building or unwinding positions. They balance orders to absorb liquidity, causing a sideways movement.
How It Affects: A balanced profile signals a possible breakout or directional move on the next day, especially if price opens outside the value area.
Logic: If price opens above 25240 or below 25145, it indicates imbalance — suggesting a trending move. Inside this range = sideways.
---📈 2. Price Action + SMC Concepts – 1-Hour Chart
What Happened: After a recent downtrend from 25,850, Nifty formed a short-term bottom and is now showing early signs of recovery. Price bounced near a key demand zone (24,857), and there's a visible CHoCH (Change of Character) indicating strength.
Why It Happened: Institutions defend their previous demand zones (marked in blue). Price approached these areas and triggered buying again.
How It Affects: If this demand zone holds, price can fill the old untested gap from October 1st toward 25452–25624.
Logic: SMC traders look for CHoCH (trend reversal signals) at known zones. Once price changes character, the previous supply zone is now a target.
---🧠 3. FII/DII Activity – Institutional Sentiment
What Happened: On 16 July:
- 🔻 FIIs: Strongly bearish in Index Futures (-3,662 contracts)
- 📉 Pro traders: Mild bullish in Index Futures and neutral in Options
- 🟢 Clients: Strongly bullish in both Futures and Options (Added 8,600 contracts)
- 🟢 DII: Medium bullish in Futures & Puts
Why It Happened: Clients and DIIs seem to be positioning for expiry upmove, while FIIs remain cautious — possibly hedging.
How It Affects: Mixed signals. If FIIs are short but market rises, short covering can fuel an expiry rally.
Logic: When clients + DIIs are aligned bullishly and FIIs aren’t heavily net short in options, the market usually sees an upside expiry move.
---📉 4. Option Chain Analysis – Max Pain & OI Zones
What Happened: Heavy Put writing at 25200 PE and 25100 PE. Call writing is strongest at 25300, 25400, indicating resistance.
- Max Pain: 25300
- Put Writers (Support): 25000–25200
- Call Writers (Resistance): 25300–25500
- PCR: 0.80 (slightly bearish sentiment)
Why It Happened: Option sellers expect expiry within 25100–25400 range. Max pain at 25300 suggests market could gravitate there.
How It Affects: Price may face resistance near 25300 unless strong buying breaks the wall of Call OI.
Logic: Option writers are often right — use OI clusters to define short-term support/resistance for expiry day trades.
---💡 Strategy to Trade Nifty on 17 July (Expiry)
If Nifty opens above 25240: Expect a possible up-move toward 25300–25450. Wait for a pullback to 25200 and take long with SL below 25145.
If Nifty opens inside Value Area (25145–25240): Range-bound expiry. Sell CE/PE options on upper/lower bounds. Target theta decay.
If opens below 25100: Watch 25000–24850 as strong demand zone. Aggressive breakdown unlikely unless FIIs continue selling heavily.
---📰 News/Events That May Impact Intraday
- ✅ No major domestic news
- 🌍 Global: Nasdaq & US yields steady — supportive for bulls
- 💹 Crude Oil prices showing reversal – inflation cooling
Impact: Global cues are mildly positive. VIX is low → Favorable for expiry range trade or slow bullish move.
---📘 Conclusion – Study Notes
This setup is a great case study on how different tools — Market Profile, Smart Money Concepts, Option Chain, and FII data — align to create a probable expiry strategy.
- 📊 Market Profile: Balanced → Look for breakout of 25145/25240
- 📈 Price Action: Demand zone bounce with CHoCH → Bullish bias
- 💰 FII/DII: Mixed data → Volatile but upward bias possible
- 🔐 Option Chain: Max Pain at 25300 → Magnet zone
Wait for confirmation at open. Don’t chase price. Plan your risk first.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.