Nifty 50 Market Setup for 14 July 2025: FII Pressure, CPI Trigger & Intraday Trade Plan

📊 Nifty 50 Intraday Outlook – 14 July 2025 (Monday)

🗓 What Happened on Friday, 11 July 2025?

• Closing: Nifty ended at 25,149.85, down by 205 points (-0.81%). The market remained under strong selling pressure throughout the session.
• Market Profile View: Price opened near 25,232 but gradually moved lower. The session Value Area and Point of Control (POC) shifted down. This shows acceptance of lower value and confirms seller dominance.
• Single Print Tail: The top of the profile shows a tail region, suggesting initiative sellers entered early and controlled the trend throughout the day.

💡 Logic:
A falling POC and value area signal that the market is accepting lower prices. This happens when institutional sellers dominate and the market is trending bearish.
📊 Participant Data (FII/DII/Client/Pro) – 11 July

• FIIs: Strong Bearish. Heavy short positions in Index Futures and Call Options. Net -1,041 Cr. This is a clear sign of downside conviction by institutions.
• PRO: Mild Bearish. Added some Put Options. Likely betting on limited downside or sideways movement.
• Clients (Retail): Strong Bullish. Added long positions in Futures and Call Options, showing retail optimism.
• DII: Strong Bullish. Bought heavily into Index Futures, showing support at lower levels.

💡 Logic:
FII positions are the most reliable indicator of trend strength. If FIIs are selling despite DII and retail buying, it often leads to further downside pressure.
📉 Option Chain Analysis – 17 July Expiry

• Max Call OI: 25,400 & 25,500 – heavy resistance ahead.
• Max Put OI: 25,000 – key support zone.
• Change in OI: Increased call writing at 25,200–25,400 suggests limited upside.
• PCR (Put/Call Ratio): 0.85 – shows bearish to neutral tone.
• IV (Implied Volatility): 11.6% – no panic; suggests controlled movement by institutions.

💡 Logic:
When PCR drops and call writing increases, it means traders expect the index to remain under pressure or range-bound. Support shifts lower when put writers exit or roll down.
🌐 Global News & Macro Events

• Positive: India is excluded from new U.S. tariffs, easing concerns over exports and forex.
• Neutral: Global markets are mixed; no major triggers from the U.S. or Europe yet.
• Trigger Event: India’s June CPI and WPI data will be released Monday morning. A higher inflation print could increase rate hike fear.
• Earnings Impact: Weak guidance from TCS dragged sentiment. Upcoming results (HCL, Axis, Wipro) will influence sectoral trends.

💡 Logic:
Macro events like inflation data directly impact rate-sensitive sectors. Earnings sentiment often sets the tone for short-term direction.

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📅 How to Trade Nifty on Monday – 14 July 2025
Trading Strategy Based on Opening Scenarios:

Scenario	Strategy	Entry	Stop Loss	Target
Gap Down Open (Below 25,150)	PE Buy / Short Futures	Below 25,150	25,250	25,000 → 24,880
Gap Up Open (Above 25,250)	Buy CE on strength	Above 25,350	25,250	25,430 → 25,500
Flat Open	Use Initial Balance breakout	Break IB High/Low	Opposite side of IB	Quick 50–100 points

💡 Trading Logic:

• If the market opens weak and fails to hold 25,150, sellers will likely push it toward 25,000.
• A gap up over resistance (25,250+) with volume can squeeze shorts and test 25,430–25,500.
• If flat, watch first 30-min range. Breakouts from that range often lead to clean directional moves.

📌 Key Levels for Monday

• Support Zones: 25,100 – 25,000 (Put OI support + psychological level)
• Resistance Zones: 25,250 – 25,500 (Call OI resistance + overhead supply)

🔁 Sector & Stock Watch:

• Weak: IT (after TCS result), Financials (if CPI rises)
• Strong: FMCG, Auto – defensive plays during uncertain CPI prints

🧠 Conclusion:

• FIIs are dominant sellers. Trend remains weak unless 25,250–25,300 is reclaimed.
• Retail and DII buying is visible but not enough to shift trend yet.
• Wait for CPI data reaction; volatility can spike post-10 AM.

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📢 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any position in the market.

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#NiftyOutlook #MarketStrategy #FIIdata #OptionChain #MarketProfile #CPIImpact #EarningsWeek #TradingPlan #NiftyMonday