📌 Introduction
In this post, we will decode the complete behavior of the Nifty 50 on Monday, 14 July 2025, using professional tools like Market Profile, Volume Analysis, Option Chain, and Participant Data (FII, DII, etc.). This will help you understand what happened, why it happened, what could happen next, and how to trade it logically. Let's begin this journey of learning and earning!
📊 What Happened on Monday (14 July 2025)?
- Price Behavior: Nifty opened flat near 25077 and stayed mostly sideways between 25020–25120. The market failed to cross Friday’s high or low, which is a clear sign of indecision.
- Market Profile Analysis: The profile formed was a b-shape (long liquidation), indicating profit booking by earlier longs. There was no strong initiative buying.
- POC (Point of Control): Shifted to 25056.3 from Friday’s 25158.3. This means value is moving lower, a bearish sign.
- Volume: Heavy activity between 25050–25100 confirms this is the current control zone.
- Close: Ended at 25119.80 with just +29.80 pts gain. No breakout or breakdown.
🧠 Logic Behind Monday’s Action:
Market tried to bounce but faced selling pressure every time it neared 25150+. There was no follow-through buying after the opening. This shows smart money was not interested in chasing prices higher. Buyers were weak, and sellers defended every rise. Hence, the market closed inside a range.
📉 Why This Happened? – Data Analysis
📌 FII & DII Participant Data:
- FIIs: Strongly bearish in Index Futures (-17,202 contracts). This means they are building short positions.
- Clients & DIIs: Bullish in Puts (Client: +11,824, DII: +10,678), showing they expect downside protection or a bounce.
- Pros (Pro Traders): Mild bullish in Futures, but indecisive in Options.
🔍 Option Chain Observations:
- PCR: 0.54 – This is a bearish reading. Calls are getting added more than puts, signaling bearish pressure.
- Call Buildup: Seen at 25200 and 25300 – strong resistance zones.
- Put Support: Seen at 25000 – critical zone for bulls to defend.
- Max Pain: 25150 – This will act like a magnet unless a breakout/breakdown happens.
🧠 Logic from Data:
Despite Clients and DIIs showing bullish bias through puts, FIIs shorting index futures strongly indicates they expect downside or at least no strong upside. Combined with low PCR, this means we are in a bearish-neutral zone. Big breakout may come only after 25200 or below 25000.
📅 What Can Happen on Tuesday (15 July 2025)?
🎯 Key Technical Zones:
- Support: 25020 – Monday’s low + poor low structure in Market Profile
- Resistance: 25158 (Friday POC) and 25224 (Friday value area high)
- Breakout Point: 25200 – above this, strong short-covering may occur till 25300–25350
- Breakdown Point: Below 25020 – open gate to 24880 or lower
🧠 How to Read This?
We are currently range-bound between 25020–25200. A breakout/breakdown from this range will give clear direction. Don't trade blindly inside this range.
💡 Trade Plan for Tuesday
| Condition | Action | Entry | Stop Loss | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown below 25020 | Buy PE | Below 25020 | 25100 | 24880 / 24800 |
| Breakout above 25200 | Buy CE | Above 25200 | 25080 | 25300 / 25350 |
| Stays inside 25020–25200 | Avoid trade / Range scalping only | Low conviction. Wait for breakout. | ||
📘 Educational Example:
Let’s say on Tuesday, Nifty opens at 25050. It then breaks below 25020 with volume and retests the level. This is your breakdown confirmation. You enter PE trade with SL above 25100 and target 24880.
If Nifty opens near 25150 and breaks above 25200 with good volume, go for CE. Your stop loss is below 25080 and target 25300+.
📰 News & Events to Watch
- US CPI Data: To be released tonight. If inflation is high, global markets can fall.
- Infosys Results: May trigger movement in Nifty IT. Watch post-market volatility.
- Crude Oil Prices: Rising oil = inflation risk = bearish for equities. Monitor closely.
✅ Final Conclusion & Tips
- Stay out if the market remains inside the range (25020–25200).
- Trade only breakouts with volume confirmation.
- Watch FII action and global cues post-CPI for extra confirmation.