Nifty Tactical Update – Post‑Balance Rejection & Trade Map for 4 July 2025
Date : 4 July 2025 | Session review + plan for next day
1. What Happened on 3 July 2025?
- Bear‑trap breakout – Price opened weak, broke the four‑day value low 25452, printed an excess low at 25392, then sharply reversed to settle near 25496.
- Market‑Profile read – Single prints at 25452 were filled and reclaimed; rejection below balance signals potential upside inventory adjustment.
- 30‑min candle view – Hammer‑like bar with RSI recovering from 19 → 42; 9‑EMA turned flat after three sessions of decline.
2. Participation Matrix (FII / DII / Client / PRO)
| Participant | Index Futures | Index Options (Net) | Bias Tag |
|---|---|---|---|
| FII | ‑40 221 contracts | Net long Puts & short Calls | Medium Bearish |
| Client | +11 668 contracts | Long Calls dominant | Mild Bullish |
| DII | +17 543 contracts | Light options flow | Medium Bullish |
| PRO | Flat/Indecisive | Hedged books | Neutral |
Take‑away : FIIs are still short but domestic hands are buying the dip – a classic cocktail for a short‑term squeeze if price accepts above the pivot.
3. Option‑Chain Snapshot
- ATM Spot : 25 450
- Put–Call Ratio (PCR, change in OI) : 0.62 → bearish but oversold
- Put walls (support) : 25400 PE, 25300 PE
- Call walls (resistance) : 25500 CE, 25600 CE
- Implied Vol (INDIAVIX) : 12.4 – still compressed
⇒ Stronger put writing surfaced between 25400–25300; call writers defend 25500/25600. Expect a ping‑pong inside these walls unless a catalyst forces expansion.
4. Key Technical & Profile Levels
| ✅ 25651 | — 27 Jun excess high (major resistance) |
| ✅ 25600 / 25551 | — Option call cluster & MP day‑highs |
| ⭐ 25511 | — Four‑day composite POC (pivot) |
| ⚔️ 25452 | — Filled single‑print area → S/R flip |
| 🛡️ 25392 – 25387 | — VAL & excess low (demand) |
| 🛡️ 25300 | — Max PE OI support |
5. Trade Blueprint for Thursday, 4 July 2025
| # | Setup Trigger | Entry Zone | Stop‑Loss | Targets | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Long) | Dip to 25452–25470, price re‑accepts | Buy on bullish 5‑min candle | 25387 | 25511 → 25551 | High Conviction |
| 2 (Long Breakout) | 30‑min close > 25511 | Buy on pullback to 25530 | 25470 | 25551 → 25600 | Moderate |
| 3 (Short Scalp) | Quick rejection at 25511 (wick reversal) | Sell near 25540 | 25570 | 25452 → 25400 | Low |
| 4 (Fresh Short) | Gap‑down & acceptance < 25387 | Sell on retest of 25390 | 25420 | 25330 → 25270 | Conditional |
Mindset : Stay neutral‑to‑bullish while above 25452. A close below 25387 flips intraday control back to sellers.
6. Quick Checklist Before the Bell
- Is price opening inside Tuesday’s value (25452–25496) or outside?
- 10‑minute VWAP direction & whether price sides with it.
- Bank Nifty correlation – leading or lagging?
- FIIs – any early index‑future buy flow?
- Check option chain for fresh strikes with >5 lakh OI build.
7. Risk Disclosure & Final Word
All views are for educational purposes. Markets may invalidate any bias without notice; manage risk with predefined stops and proper position sizing.
Good trading! ✌️
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