🔍 NIFTY 50 Analysis & Trade Plan for 19 June 2025
This blog provides a comprehensive trade setup for Nifty 50 based on detailed market profile analysis, option chain data, and participant positioning (FII, DII, PRO, Client) for 19 June 2025, which is also the expiry day. By studying three days of value shifts, POC movement, and IB range, combined with open interest build-up and sentiment signals from institutional players, the blog outlines clear bullish and bearish scenarios with defined entry, stop loss, and target zones. It helps traders navigate expiry-day volatility with a structured plan based on logic, price action, and real-time data. Whether you're a scalper or positional trader, this guide equips you with high-confidence levels and timing strategies for the session.
📈 Market Profile Summary (14–18 June)
- 14 June: Trend day up. Strong auction with single print tail at the low.
VAH: 24972.45 | VAL: 24812.75 | POC: 24835.95 - 17 June: Balanced profile. Inside value.
VAH: 24892.3 | VAL: 24812.75 | POC: 24835.95 - 18 June: Lower value area day. Narrow IB. Weak structure.
VAH: 24857.95 | VAL: 24754.90 | POC: 24794.98
📌 Observation: Value area is shifting lower day by day (from 24970 to 24857 to 24754), indicating seller control. POC on 18 June is also below previous value area, suggesting weak buyer conviction.
📊 Participant Data (FII, DII, PRO, CLIENT) – 18 June 2025
- FII:
- Strong Bearish in Index Futures (Net OI: -90,133)
- Neutral in Options
- PRO:
- Mild Bullish in Index Futures
- Medium Bullish in Call Options
- CLIENT:
- Medium Bullish in Index Futures
- Strong Bullish in Put Options
- DII:
- Low participation. No significant bias.
📌 Insight: FII continues to be aggressive on short side in futures. Clients are overly bullish in puts and futures—risk of getting trapped if market reverses. PROs are showing smart bullish footprints in calls.
🔎 Option Chain Analysis – Expiry 19 June
- Spot Price: 24812.05
- Max Pain: 24800
- PCR: 0.65 → Bearish
- Resistance Zones:
- 24900 (Highest CE OI)
- 25000 (Fresh Call Writing)
- Support Zones:
- 24700 (Put OI support)
- 24600 (Aggressive Put buyers)
📌 Conclusion: OI data shows strong resistance at 24900–25000. Support base forming near 24600–24700, but still weak. If 24750 breaks, sharp selloff possible.
📅 Trade Plan for 19 June 2025 (Thursday)
🔼 Bullish Setup (Buy CE)
- Trigger: Price sustains above 24860 (above VAH and POC)
- Stoploss: 24810 (Below value low)
- Targets: 24895 → 24930 → 24972+
- Confirmation: Volume & OI support in CE strikes like 24900 and 25000
🔽 Bearish Setup (Buy PE)
- Trigger: Breakdown below 24750 (VAL & IB Low)
- Stoploss: 24810 (above POC)
- Targets: 24690 → 24630 → 24580
- Confirmation: Rising OI in 24700 and 24600 PE
⛔ No Trade Zone
- Between 24750–24810 → Sideways, risk of whipsaws
⏰ Best Trading Time
- Wait till after 9:45 AM – let IB range form
- Trade breakouts from IB high/low with volume/OI confirmation
🧠 Final View
The short-term structure remains bearish with FII heavy shorts and falling value areas. However, if Nifty crosses and sustains above 24860, buyers can gain intraday momentum. Risk-reward favors PE below 24750. Stay alert near Max Pain zone (24800), as expiry day volatility is expected.
Trade safe, follow price + structure + volume confirmation. 🎯
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