📊 NIFTY 50 Intraday Analysis – 11 July 2025
In today's market session (10th July), Nifty 50 closed at 25,348.25, showing signs of weakness after a failed attempt to reclaim the 25,490–25,555 supply zone. Despite an early bounce, sellers dominated the second half, pushing the index below key demand zones. Price action, volume behavior, option chain activity, and institutional data together indicate a bearish-to-neutral outlook for the next session. Let’s analyze what happened, why it happened, and how we can position ourselves tomorrow (11 July 2025).
📉 What Happened Today (10 July 2025)?
- Opening Price: 25,411.65 – slightly above the previous session low, hinting at a possible gap fill.
- Intraday High: 25,374.70 – price failed to break above the 25,400–25,450 zone, indicating supply dominance.
- Intraday Low: 25,340.45 – support taken at the edge of the previous demand, but weak buying response.
- Closing: 25,348.25 – price closed near day’s low, confirming selling pressure into the close.
The Market Profile chart showed acceptance near the lower value area (25354.7) and an emerging P-shaped structure during the day, which generally indicates weak short covering. However, the selling resumed, rejecting higher prices, and price returned to the lower distribution. This suggests sellers remain in control.
💼 Institutional Activity (FII/DII) – 10 July
| Participant | Segment | Action | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| FII | Index Futures | Strong Bearish | Closed 48.3k contracts; net –45k, clear short buildup |
| FII | Call Options | Bearish | Shorted calls aggressively near 25,500 CE |
| Clients | Index Futures | Medium Bullish | Retail went long, acting as opposite party to FII |
| DII | Index Futures | Medium Bullish | Some support, but not enough to overpower FIIs |
This activity indicates institutional bias is still negative. While DIIs and retail try to catch dips, FII positioning and options suggest downside pressure.
🔎 Option Chain Analysis – 10 July Expiry
- ATM Strike: 25,350
- PCR: 0.62 – clearly bearish
- Highest CE OI: 25,500 and 25,600 – strong resistance zone
- Highest PE OI: 25,300 and 25,200 – weak support, vulnerable to break
Change in OI indicates fresh CE writing at 25,400–25,600 and PE unwinding at 25,300, confirming that sellers are positioning above while support is weakening below. This is a classic sign of distribution and breakdown potential.
📐 Price Action & Structure (30-min Chart)
- Break of Structure (BOS): Downside BOS visible after CHoCH
- RSI: 33.68 – Bearish zone
- Supply Zone: 25,490 – 25,555
- Demand Zone: 25,220 – 25,300 (last stand)
The price broke down from a tight consolidation range and retested the lower part of the supply zone but failed to hold. The 25,490–25,555 zone is now acting as a strong resistance. A move below 25,340 will likely trigger further unwinding.
🧠 Why the Market Behaved Like This?
The market attempted a rebound early in the day, but:
- There was no institutional support – FII data confirmed short buildup.
- The call writing and weak PCR signaled downside continuation.
- The structure had already flipped bearish on BOS + CHoCH confirmation.
So, today's behavior was a logical continuation of broader distribution and short buildup that began earlier in the week. Retail buying was absorbed by institutions who continued to short aggressively.
📆 How to Trade Tomorrow (11 July 2025)?
🔻 Bias: Bearish below 25,340
🔺 Bullish only above 25,490
📌 Plan 1 – Breakdown Trade (Put Option)
- Trigger: 30-min candle closes below 25,340
- Entry: Buy ATM/ITM PE (25,300 or 25,250 PE)
- Target: 25,280 → 25,220
- Stop Loss: 25,400
- Logic: Fresh downside opens up once strong low is broken with weak support below and bearish FII bias.
📌 Plan 2 – Short Covering Rally (Call Option, Risky)
- Trigger: Price sustains above 25,490 (15-min candle close)
- Entry: Buy 25,500 or 25,550 CE
- Target: 25,555 → 25,600
- Stop Loss: 25,440
- Logic: If supply gets reclaimed, trapped shorts may trigger quick upside to resistance levels, but trade must be light and quick.
🧾 Final Notes for Traders
- Wait for breakdown below 25,340 for a confident PE trade.
- Watch for rejection near 25,490 – best risk-to-reward shorts may come from that zone.
- Keep an eye on PCR, fresh OI data, and RSI in live market.
- Protect capital, use defined SL, and avoid emotional trades in volatile expiry weeks.
This analysis is for educational and research purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before trading. Use strict risk management and position sizing.