🔍 NIFTY 25450 Complete Analysis – Expiry 10 July 2025
🗓️ Date: 9 July 2025 | Index: NIFTY 50 | Spot: 25,464 | Expiry: 10 July
📊 Institutional Participant Analysis
FIIs, DIIs, and Clients (Retail) provide vital insight into underlying market sentiment:
- FIIs: Reduced over 73,000 contracts in index futures — this is a clear sign of strong bearishness. FIIs tend to lead trends, and this shows they are either booking profits or anticipating downside.
- Clients (Retail): Showed medium bullishness in index futures but a strong buildup in PUT buying. This indicates fear or panic — possibly hedging or directional bearish bets by retail.
- DIIs: Displayed mild bullishness. While they may offer limited support, they’re not strong enough to reverse the trend alone.
📌 Summary View: FIIs bearish + Retail panicked = Negative undertone. Unless reversed by heavy buying, expect downward bias.
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🧱 Price Action + Structure Breakdown
- 📉 Price shows a series of CHoCH (Change of Character) followed by BOS (Break of Structure) to the downside – this confirms that trend control has shifted from bulls to bears.
- 🔄 On July 9, price rejected the resistance zone 25,555–25,624 with clear signs of selling (long wicks, volume drop, imbalance).
- 🟡 Now hovering near gap support zone: 25,452–25,490 — a critical level. If this fails, sellers will take control toward 25,350 and 25,280.
- 📉 RSI: Below 50 and shows bearish divergence — momentum is fading, confirming weakness.
🧠 Conclusion: Structural signs point to trend reversal unless bulls reclaim 25,490 and hold.
📈 Option Chain & Open Interest Logic
- ATM Strike: 25450
- Support Zone (Puts): 25400 PE and 25350 PE have high OI — this suggests writers are defending here, possibly short-term support.
- Resistance Zone (Calls): Heavy CE writing seen at 25500, 25550, and 25600 — indicating strong resistance at higher levels.
- Shift in OI: Decrease in 25450 PE and increase in 25500 CE — showing that sellers are entering ATM zone, a bearish signal.
📌 Interpretation: Market has clear Call dominance near 25500+, and Put base is weak — indicating limited upside and potential breakdown ahead.
🧠 Market Profile Analysis (Value Zones)
- POC (Point of Control): 25484.8 — Most traded price, currently acting as resistance.
- VAH (Value Area High): 25533.2 — Recent rejection here confirms supply zone.
- VAL (Value Area Low): 25423.2 — Below this, imbalance likely to return.
- Single Print Rejection: Seen near 25546.4 — unfinished auction suggesting exhaustion by buyers.
📌 Logic: Price closed below POC and VAH — this is a bearish sign in profile theory. Unless Nifty regains 25485+, trend remains negative.
📌 Expiry Trade Plan – July 10, 2025
| 🧾 Condition | 🎯 Strategy | 🎯 Target | 🚫 Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breaks below 25,450 | Sell futures / Buy PE | 25,350, 25,280 | 25,500 |
| Reclaims 25,490 with volume | Buy CE scalp | 25,555 and 25,587 | 25,460 |
| Inside range 25,452–25,490 | Neutral zone – wait for breakout | -- | -- |
Bias: Bearish unless bulls reclaim 25,490 with strong momentum.
📈 How to Trade the Next Day (July 11, Friday)
On the day after expiry, new contracts begin with fresh positions. Here’s how to plan:
- 🔻 Scenario 1: Gap-down or below 25,450
Carry bearish momentum. First target 25,350, then 25,280. Best suited for PE buyers or futures shorts on early breakdown. - 🔁 Scenario 2: Gap-up into 25,490–25,520 zone
This is a supply area. Look for reversal candles (like shooting star, bearish engulfing) to initiate fresh shorts. - 🔺 Scenario 3: Price holds above 25,555
Look for breakout retest and then scalp CE toward 25,624–25,680. Use volume and RSI > 50 as confirmation. - 🧠 Indicators to watch: Opening range, FIIs index future activity, and whether RSI diverges on early moves.
👉 Key Level to Track: 25,490 – Whichever side price holds or breaks here, that trend likely dominates the session.
📌 Final View:
With FIIs bearish, structure turning negative, and rejection from resistance, the market bias is clearly bearish. Expiry volatility may create intraday spikes, but positional trades must follow structure. For July 11, watch 25,450 on downside and 25,490 on upside for early trend direction.
Discipline and confirmation matter more than prediction.
📘 Disclaimer:
This blog is for educational use only. Please consult your financial advisor before trading. Derivatives involve risk of capital loss.
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