🔍 NIFTY Market Profile Analysis for June 17
Date: June 17, 2025
Instrument: NIFTY Index
Timeframe: 30-minute Market Profile
📊 Three-Day Profile Breakdown
🟩 June 12 – Balanced Profile
- VAH: 25,132
- VAL: 24,908
- POC: 25,040.5
- Structure: D-shape (Balance)
- Interpretation: Buyers and sellers in equilibrium. No dominant force.
🟧 June 13 – Trend Day (Bearish)
- VAH: 24,741.6
- VAL: 24,686.7
- POC: 24,713
- Structure: b-shape (Long liquidation)
- Interpretation: Sellers dominated. Longs exited sharply after 25,000 rejection.
🟨 June 16 – Double Distribution
- VAH: 24,975.4
- VAL: 24,814.8
- POC: 24,814.8
- Structure: Double Distribution
- Interpretation: Rejection of lower prices. Buyers stepped in above 24,740 zone.
🔮 Tomorrow's Bias – June 17 Outlook
- POC Migration: Moving upward – bullish structure forming
- Value Area Shift: Upward from 13th to 16th
- Current Price: 24,946.50 (near VAH)
- Option Data: Heavy resistance at 25,000–25,100, support at 24,800–24,900
Bias: Neutral to Bullish – possible continuation if breakout holds
📈 Trade Scenarios for June 17
✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Above 24,975
- Action: Buy Call Option (CE) near 25,000 strike
- Target: 25,100 → 25,150
- Stop Loss: 24,900
- Trigger: Sustained move and close above 24,975 with volume
⚠️ Scenario 2: Rejection from Resistance
- Action: Buy Put Option (PE) near 24,900 strike
- Target: 24,814 → 24,740
- Stop Loss: 25,050
- Trigger: Failure to hold above 25,000 with selling pressure
❌ Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Below 24,740
- Action: Sell PE or Buy 24,700 Put
- Target: 24,630 → 24,500
- Stop Loss: 24,815
- Trigger: Breakdown below 24,740 with strong momentum and volume
📌 Key Levels to Watch
- Support: 24,740 / 24,815
- Resistance: 24,975 / 25,050 / 25,100
- Value Zone: 24,814.8 – 24,975.4
⏰ Time-Based Strategy
| Time | Strategy |
|---|---|
| 9:15–10:00 | Watch IB range setup – No trade zone unless breakout |
| 10:00–11:30 | Break IB High → Buy CE Break IB Low → Buy PE |
| 11:30–1:30 | Range likely – only fade extremes |
| 1:30–2:45 | Trend continuation or reversal – follow breakout retest |
| 3:00–3:15 | Exit positions – option decay high |
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading in derivatives involves risk. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
📊 Derivatives Participant Data Analysis - 16 June 2025
On Monday, 16th June 2025, market participants showed a mixed stance across derivatives segments. Below is a breakdown of activity by FIIs, DIIs, Proprietary Traders, and Clients in index futures and options:
🔍 Key Observations:
- FIIs: Showed bullish sentiment in all index futures (NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, MIDCPNIFTY, FINNIFTY), with mild to medium bullish strength. However, they were mild bearish in NIFTY NEXT 50.
- Index Options: FIIs had a net bullish stance with a medium bullish tone in both calls and puts.
- Pro Traders: Were strongly bullish in options, particularly in calls and puts, indicating confident positioning for upside.
- Clients: Contrarily, showed strong bearish positions in both index options calls and puts, possibly hedging or betting on correction.
- DIIs: Remained mostly inactive or neutral, with only a mild bearish position in put options.
📌 Overall Market Bias:
Taking all segments into account, the overall bias is BULLISH due to:
- FIIs: Consistent buying in both futures and options.
- PROs: Aggressive bullish stance in options, adding strength to upward momentum.
- Clients: Being contrarian and heavily bearish may indicate short covering if the market moves higher.
While client participants are showing caution, the dominant positioning by FIIs and PROs suggests potential continuation of the rally. Traders should monitor follow-up activity and VIX closely.
📈 Nifty & BankNifty Closing:
- NIFTY: Closed at 23498.50 (+0.31%)
- BANKNIFTY: Closed at 50944.00 (+0.75%)
💡 Interpretation:
The FIIs and Proprietary Traders are supporting the upside with bullish futures and options positioning. However, Client data being strongly bearish might indicate hedging or lack of confidence in the rally.
The divergence between professional and retail participants can often precede volatility. Watch for follow-through on Tuesday, especially around FII option flows and whether client bearishness unwinds.
📅 Analysis Date: 16 June 2025
🕒 Next Market Session: 17 June 2025, opens at 9:15 AM
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